The Glossary

Every term and abbreviation on NBAplusEV, explained in plain English.

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3PM

Three-pointers made. Shown on the site as "Threes" or "Made Threes".

A

Avg (Top 10 tables)

The player's season average for that table's stat (points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks or threes), to one decimal. Until he has played 10 games this season, a few big or quiet nights can make that number misleading, so we blend it with last season: his games this season count once each and last season's average counts as 10 extra games. A small tag such as (4g) shows how many games he has played this season. From 10 games on, it is simply this season's average. Compare it with Proj, our projection for tonight.

AST

Assists: passes that lead straight to a teammate scoring.

B

B2B

Back-to-back. A team playing on two days in a row. Tired legs usually mean slightly worse performance.

Best odds

The best bookie price we found for a tip (for example Sportsbet or Ladbrokes), shown as decimal odds.

Bet / No bet

Our badge on each game. "Bet" means the model has a stake on it and the sharp price backs it up. "No bet" means we're only showing a lean, with nothing staked.

BLK

Blocks: swatting away an opponent's shot.

C

CLV

Closing line value. Whether you got a better price than the final price just before tip-off. Beating the closing line regularly is the best sign a bettor has a real edge.

Confidence / P(+EV)

How sure the model is that a bet really is +EV, after allowing for its own uncertainty. 65% means about two-in-three confidence the edge is real.

D

Days rest

Days off since a team last played. More rest usually helps, and 0 days rest means a back-to-back.

Decimal odds

Australian-style odds. What you get back per $1, including your $1. $2.50 returns $2.50, so $1.50 profit.

Doubtful

Injury status: very unlikely to play. We treat these players as out.

DVP

Defence vs position. How much a team gives up to a type of player (guards, forwards, centres). Above 1.00 means a soft matchup, below 1.00 a tough one.

E

Edge

How much better a price is than the real chance it represents. No edge means no bet.

+EV / EV

Expected value. The average profit or loss a bet would make if you placed it many times. +EV means the price is better than our estimate of the real chance, so it should come out ahead over the long run. It's an average, not a promise for any single bet.

F

Fair odds / Our price

The price we think is fair, worked out as 1 ÷ the model's win chance. 63.4% gives $1.58. If the best odds are bigger than our price, there might be value.

G

Gate (Gate 1)

Our minutes adjustment when teammates are out. Someone has to play those minutes, so we shift them to the players likely to get them.

H

H2H

Head to head, also called the moneyline. You just pick who wins the game, with no points start.

Home court

The edge a team gets from playing at home, worth about 2 points in our model.

I

Implied probability

The chance a price is really saying. 1 ÷ decimal odds: $2.00 means 50%, $1.25 means 80%.

Ins & Outs

Our panel showing who's Out, Questionable or Returning for each game, taken from the official injury report.

K

Kelly / quarter Kelly

A formula for sizing bets based on your edge. Full Kelly swings wildly, so many people bet a quarter of it to keep the ups and downs manageable.

L

Lean

The side the model slightly prefers, even when it isn't strong enough to bet.

Line / spread

A points start. "Kings +5.5" wins if the Kings win, or lose by 5 or fewer.

Lock

Every card shows 5 Top Locks: the selections we rate most likely to land at odds of $1.20 or more. Our chance is blended toward the player's real hit rate this season and last. Marked Bet only if it clears our bar; otherwise No bet. Likely to win but small returns, and never guaranteed.

Long shot

Every card shows 5 Top Long Shots at odds of $4.00 to $7.50. Each needs at least 5 games of data, at least one hit on that line in his last 10 or last season, and the minutes to do it. Anything rated more than 60% better than the price is treated as a model error and dropped. They miss more often than not, but pay well when they land.

M

Matchup special

One Over and one Under on a player's main stat (points, rebounds or assists), where the opponent is clearly weak or clearly strong at defending that stat for his position, judged on this season and last combined. Always shown; Bet only if it clears our bar.

Margin of error / 90% CI

The range the true chance probably sits in. "60% (52–68%)" means we're fairly sure the real chance is between 52% and 68%.

Minutes / role

How long a player is expected to be on court, and whether they start or come off the bench. More minutes means more chances for stats.

O

Out

Injury status: not playing.

P

Pace

How many possessions a team has per game. Fast teams create more chances for points, rebounds and assists.

Pinnacle / sharp line

Pinnacle is a low-margin bookie that sharp bettors trust. We use its price as the "true" market check. If Pinnacle doesn't back our view, we don't bet.

PRA

Points + rebounds + assists added together.

Props

Player bets, like "over 20.5 points", instead of bets on the game result.

PTS

Points scored.

Q

Questionable

Injury status: might play, might not. Check again before tip-off.

R

REB

Rebounds: grabbing the ball after a missed shot.

Returning

A player coming back from injury or a break. Their minutes may be limited at first.

Risers / fallers

Players whose projected minutes or production are well above (risers) or below (fallers) their usual. Good places to start research, not bets on their own.

Risk grade (A–D)

Our overall rating mixing edge, uncertainty and sample size. A is best, D is weakest.

S

Sample size

How many games the numbers come from. Early in a season, 2–4 games can be mostly noise.

Stake

How much we put on a bet, in units.

STL

Steals: taking the ball off the other team.

T

Totals

Betting on the combined score of both teams, over or under a number.

U

Unit (u)

A standard bet size, for example 1% of your bankroll. 0.25u is a quarter of that.

Unverified

A prop where there's no Pinnacle price to check the edge against, so we cap the stake at 0.25u.

Usage

How much of a team's play runs through a player while they're on court (shots, free throws, turnovers).

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